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See Resources & Further Reading below...

Kim Slocum, former Director, Strategic Planning & Business Development at AstraZeneca, suggests that the pharmaceutical industry faces at least three likely future health care scenarios in the US that will have an impact on its business and profits:

1. "The Triumph of Reason" -- Supported by evidence-based medicine, widespread use of health information technology to support real-time comparative effectiveness research, and value-based reimbursement for innovative biopharmaceuticals.
2. "Big Brother Arrives" -- Gov't "fixes" the health cost problem (ie, single payer system) and determines who has access to health care.
3. "Consumer Chaos" -- Involves the acceleration of trends shifting the costs of health care and decision-making authority to consumers.

Two other scenarios include:

4. "Safety Net" -- Government run, price-controlled system that covers primary care, generic medications, basic chronic disease care and catastrophic hospitalizations. People with more money could "trade up" with their own money to better standards of care. This is much like the healthcare system we see in Australia.
5. "PhRMA's Platform" -- A scenario endorsed by PhRMA, the US drug industry trade association (see Resources). It emphasizes affordable health insurance and choice for all Americans rather than a government-run insurance plan. The plan depends upon "expanding private health insurance coverage through new refundable tax credits targeted at low-wage, small businesses and providing individual subsidies for low- and moderate income families to purchase coverage on their own or through new pooling arrangements" and upon Medicaid and SCHIP as safety nets.

Which scenario is likely to unfold in the next 10 years and which one would benefit the pharmaceutical industry the most?

[You might argue that what's best for consumers is also best for pharma. That's fine. But I am specifically interested in your opinion on what's best for pharma. You should then back up your choice with why you also think it's best for patients. There's plenty of room in the survey for open-ended comments.]

Your opinion on other important aspects of the current healthcare reform debate are sought, including:

• Will Comparative-Effectiveness Research/Review (CER) lower drug costs?
• Will CER lead to European-style rationing in which patients are denied lifesaving therapies to save money?
• Is CER bound to reduce brand drug companies' bottom lines?
• Will CER lead to better healthcare outcomes?
• Will CER not take into account that some drugs work better on some people than on others?
• Will CER based on real-time outcomes review help identify drug safety issues and save lives?
• Is the only real threat of CER to have it done badly, by people whose only interest is in reducing costs?
• Should congress create a government-run health plan that competes with private plans?

Results of this survey will be summarized in Pharma Marketing News. After you complete the survey, you will be able to see the summary yourself. No comments or other identifying information is included in the summary.

Your comments are confidential (anonymous) unless you specifically provide your contact information at the end of the survey and allow us to attribute comments to you personally.

Take the survey here.

Resources & Further Reading:

• Will Healthcare be Rationed or Rational? In this article, Kim Slocum, former Director, Strategic Planning & Business Development at AstraZeneca describes several alternative future health care system scenarios and makes a case for the industry to support Comparative Effectiveness Research or CER. Read more...

• podcast interview of Kim Slocum

• Platform for a Healthy America

• Critical: What Daschle Plans to Do About the Healthcare Crisis