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Survey began 6 December 2009
Survey ended 8 January 2010

This survey solicits your opinion regarding what lies ahead for the pharmaceutical industry in the decade 2010-2019.

See Resources & Further Reading below...

Background

Now is a good time to look into our crystal balls and predict the future scenarios for the pharmaceutical industry. Let's take a slightly long-term view and predict how likely the following will be in the next decade (ie, 2010 to 2019):

• New follow-on biologics legislation in the U.S. will increase competition from generic equivalents and eventually decrease brand profits
• Social media marketing will become a significant part (>10%) of the pharmaceutical marketing mix
• The European Union will finally allow Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) advertising to its citizens
• Due to decreasing effectiveness of traditional physician detailing and rise of non-personal detailing, the role of traditional sales representative will become obsolete
• More efficient targeting of drugs and marketing to specific patient populations will greatly increase effectiveness and decrease side effects of drugs
• Internet-based drug promotion (including search engine marketing) will overtake TV-based DTC in the U.S. in terms of dollars spent
• Extensive outcomes data available to payers and comparative effectiveness research will force the industry much further down the path of pay-for-performance (ie, adopt a more flexible approach to pricing)
• New healthcare reform legislation will dramatically increase the sales of drugs in the U.S.
• The next BIG opportunity for targeted marketing to patients and physicians is mobile apps on "smart phones"
• Patients will become even more influential and empowered5 in making healthcare decisions as they are forced to pay a larger share of costs and/or have access to health information from a variety of sources
• Broadcast (ie, TV) Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) drug promotion will be banned or sharply curtailed by law in the U.S.
• Despite lack of innovative new drugs and/or generic competition, sales of brand drugs worldwide will show a sharp increase due to increased demand in emerging markets (eg, China)

It's a lot to think about, we know. But if you help us and take a few minutes to tell how likely these various future scenarios will be for the drug industry in the years 2010-2019, you will be rewarded with FREE reprints and discounted special supplements covering many of the issues involved in these scenarios.

To see a de-identified summary of results, click here.

A more detailed summary of survey results appears in the January, 2010 issue of Pharma Marketing News. See PMN Reprint 91-01: Predicting the Future of the Drug Industry.